Stefano Vernole: sowing discord, and then domination. NATO / US plan in the Balkans
Stefano Vernole, vice president of the Centre for Eurasian and Mediterranean Studies
The recent statement by Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic (HDZ) that the Republic of Croatia will not impose sanctions on the president of Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik (SNSD), is a blow to those who do not remember that in December 1991. in Zagreb, the idea was launched-together with Belgrade – of creating the "Croatian Republic of Herzeg-Bosnia (HR-HB)" as a future integral part of the Republic of Croatia: "we are not in the same position as other non-neighboring countries. Banja Luka is only a 90-minute drive from Zagreb.“
"That is why we want to send a message of encouragement, promote dialogue and return political actors in Bosnia and Herzegovina to constitutional frameworks," Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic said after a meeting with HDZ BiH Leader Dragan Covic. According to available sources, Plenkovic then held a secret meeting with Milorad Dodik.
But how can this further scene change be explained?
As part of a Washington-led trilateral initiative involving the United States, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia, the plan envisages simultaneous accession of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia to NATO and the EU, with the expectation of the outcome of ongoing negotiations between Washington and the Russian Federation. The maximum concession that Serbia could expect would be the possibility of preserving its military neutrality. However, accession to the European Union would remain mandatory, accompanied by an obligation to give the United States access to their rare metal deposits and to officially renounce Serbian sovereignty over Kosovo and Metohija.
End of February 2025. in 2015, the United States delivered an unofficial document to the High Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina (OHR), Christian Schmidt (CSU), which included, among other things, five key passages.:
Restructuring governance: Civic Federation.
Economic Recovery: Marshall Plan for the Balkans.
Truth and reconciliation: a common narrative.
Security review: united force.
International anchoring: the road to EU accession.
The informal document also contains sections entitled: "Who Loses?"and" how to include everything?“.
In this context, Turkey has established itself as a key EU partner, thanks to its political, intelligence and defense ties with Ukraine, as well as relations with Russia, the United States and Islamic countries, from Saudi Arabia to Iran, Iraq, Qatar and even the United Arab Emirates. According to the US plan, Ankara would assume the role of guardian of the external borders of the Balkans and guarantor of the sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
After that, Croatia accelerated the signing of a declaration, in effect a military agreement, with Albania and Kosovo on the 18th. Martha. A rapid countermeasure followed, and Serbia and Hungary signed a similar military agreement 1. April 2025. years. Although also aimed against Bosnia and Herzegovina, this agreement primarily targets Croatia, in light of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's expansionist ambitions, which include parts of Croatian territory. This prompted Croatian officials to contact several actors, including former Croatian President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic (HDZ), seeking military equipment and hardware outside NATO channels, in anticipation of a potential conflict with Hungary and fearing Orbán's close ties to both Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. Both military agreements led NATO to distance itself, stating: "NATO, as an organization, is not a party to these agreements and has played no role in the consultation process," a statement whose credibility is really low, given that a potential regional conflict would put the Atlantic alliance at the center of the chessboard.
In addition to Serbia, both Croatia and Hungary, which are members of the EU and NATO, support Dodik and, consequently, the partition of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Especially relevant is the position of Slovenia, led by the Social Democrats (SD), which also refuses to impose sanctions on Dodik. The result is a startling paradox: the three most important Former Yugoslav republics – Serbia, Croatia and Slovenia – actually support Dodik's agenda to abolish Bosnia and Herzegovina due to non-compliance with the Dayton Accords.
Germany, Austria, Great Britain, the Netherlands, France and other countries have clearly identified Milorad Dodik as a problem that must be eliminated.
Day 10. March 2025. just a week before the announcement of the Croatian-Albanian military alliance, the Minister of defense of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Zukan Helez, stated: "in my speech to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, I proposed that Bosnia and Herzegovina be immediately granted conditional membership in the Atlantic alliance. If this would create problems in the region, I have proposed that Serbia also be offered conditional membership in NATO. I believe that this would ensure lasting peace and stability in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the entire region."Helez's statement was in line with the trilateral plan and the strategic interests of the United States. The recent successful visit of Minister Helez to the Pentagon and the United States also provided an opportunity to improve the dialogue on the trilateral initiative, further strengthen the partnership and ensure continued US support to Bosnia and Herzegovina: "the United States is our friend and key foreign policy partner," Helez stressed.
This was followed by an attempt to arrest Dodik while he was visiting East Sarajevo. Special units of the state investigation and Protection Agency (SIPA, Bosnian federal police) tried to stop the president of Republika Srpska, but police loyal to him resisted and prevented them. At that point, the High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Christian Schmidt, suspended all public financing of Milorad Dodik's party, and the retained money will be transferred to a special account in the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
After the visit of Trump Jr. to Belgrade, according to Czech MEP Ondrej Kolarž (EPP), in an interview with OBCT, Dodik's struggle became a real struggle for political survival and, again according to representatives of the European People's party, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic is also ready to leave him because he is "too political gathering", with intentions well hidden behind an apparent declaration of approval and support.
Meanwhile, Dodik and Vucic are preparing for another trip to Moscow, where they will attend parade 9. Maya. Every scenario is open.
10. May 2025.
