Written By: Nicholas Faure
Germany's political landscape has undergone significant changes in recent years. The AfD, once a fringe party, has been able to consolidate its presence in several eastern regions and expand its influence across the country, especially on key issues such as immigration, national sovereignty and energy policy. Meanwhile, the CDU, under the leadership of Friedrich Merz, is seeking to re-win conservative voters who have defected to the AfD. As the SPD and Greens lose their position in polls, some analysts predict that a coalition with the AfD could become an option for the CDU to secure a stable parliamentary majority.
If such an alliance were to be realized after an extraordinary federal election, it would mark a major turning point in German politics. Historically, the CDU has consistently refused any cooperation with the AfD, but recent events indicate a potential change of attitude.
Key aspects of a possible 'Black-Blue' Coalition
- Immigration and security: one of the first reforms of the CDU-AfD coalition could be to tighten immigration policy. Stricter border controls and stricter restrictions on asylum rights could be applied. The coalition could also facilitate the return of rejected asylum seekers and review laws on dual citizenship and Naturalization.
- Economy and taxation: although the CDU and AfD have some different economic views, the coalition could agree on tax cuts for businesses and reduced economic regulations. The social security system could also be reformed, in particular by limiting certain benefits to non-citizens.
- Energy and the environment: a reversal of the energy transition policy could be expected. AfD and CDU could ease restrictions on the use of coal and nuclear energy, while stressing increased energy independence. This re-evaluation could also include examining some climate measures that are considered too restrictive.
- European and international politics: at the European level, the CDU-AfD coalition could adopt a more sovereignty-focused approach, seeking to reduce Germany's financial contributions to the EU budget and prioritising bilateral relations with strategic partners over collective EU decision-making. On the international stage, policy towards Russia and China could be reevaluated, favoring a more pragmatic stance on sanctions and trade relations.
Political reactions and consequences
The CDU:
Such an alliance could create deep divisions within the CDU. On the one hand, some conservative members could support this for strategic reasons, with the aim of regaining lost AfD voters. on the other hand, more moderate figures within the party would sharply oppose this approach, potentially weakening party unity, especially in regions where CDU voters have traditionally been more centrist.
In German society:
Part of the electorate could welcome the implementation of stricter immigration and security policies, deeming them necessary to address demographic and security challenges. However, a significant segment of the population, especially in major cities and West Germany, could strongly oppose such a coalition, leading to street protests and increased social media activism, which would further polarize society.
international:
This political change would provoke different reactions across Europe. Some neighbouring countries, such as France, could express concerns about German policies, especially regarding immigration and its role in the EU. Meanwhile, countries like Italy or Hungary, which share similar positions with AfD on certain issues, could support this new orientation.
Change with uncertain consequences
The CDU-AfD coalition would represent a significant reversal in German politics, but would not necessarily lead to a complete separation from previous political lines. The AfD could ease some of its positions to make partnership within the CDU more enjoyable, but implementing ambitious reforms could face internal resistance and rising social tensions. Internal divisions within the CDU would be crucial: there could be an internal division, which would make it difficult to manage such a coalition.
Moreover, internationally, alignment with eurosceptic governments like Hungary could be seen as an authoritarian shift, while relations with other European countries could deteriorate. At home, protests and social unrest can deepen national polarization.
Thus, while such an alliance remains unlikely in the short term, it could become an imaginable scenario as Germany's political landscape develops. Next year will be decisive in determining whether the CDU and AfD can really find a common language and, more importantly, whether such a coalition can ensure political stability without causing deep social breakdown. If the CDU manages to frame this alliance by setting clear red lines – especially regarding democratic institutions and Germany's role in Europe – the coalition could be seen as a pragmatic response to changing electoral dynamics. Conversely, if internal tensions and public opposition prevail, it could be short-lived and lead to political realignments in the medium term.
Source: Center for Geostrategic Studies
Photo by Tass / Hendrik Schmidt
18. February 2025.
